Determinants of Saudi–Turkish Rapprochement and the Limits of Its Contribution to the Resilience of Regional Relations in the Middle East, 2021–2023

Abstract

This study examines the determinants of Saudi-Turkish rapprochement from 2021 to 2023 and the limits of its implications for regional relations in the Middle East. It uses a qualitative case study and document analysis, drawing on foreign policy analysis to connect domestic priorities with regional and international conditions. Rapprochement is assessed through high-level visits, announced institutional commitments, financing, and economic and defence agreements, while distinguishing signature from implementation. The findings suggest that Türkiye’s economic pressures and Saudi Arabia’s diversification priorities converged with a broader regional trend towards de-escalation. The visits of 2022 and agreements of 2023 indicate expanded bilateral cooperation. However, the evidence neither isolates an independent effect on regional polarization nor establishes the formation of a new alliance. Selective partnership and managed competition therefore offer more appropriate descriptions of the relationship. Its plausible regional contribution is limited to easing tension in one important interstate relationship and widening opportunities for coordination, with durability dependent on implementation and the management of disagreements.